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FX168 Financial News Agency (Hong Kong) News Bank of England Governor Carney accidentally released the hawkish signal, the pound sterling long victory last week! However, although this week's MPC members tried to further release the hawkish signal, but the British economy's bad news "cannot stop", the pound bulls seem to be "recession"...
This week, the dollar demand has picked up, coupled with the UK manufacturing and service purchasing managers index (PMI), which has been frequently reported, and today’s UK first-quarter economic productivity recorded the first decline since 2015, making economic growth The outlook is once again overshadowed.
1. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday that the UK's economic productivity fell in the first three months of this year, the first drop since the end of 2015, highlighting the challenges facing the UK economy in the future.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, the hourly output in the first quarter fell by 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2016, and productivity fell below 2007, the previous high before the financial crisis.
2. Following the manufacturing PMI, the survey report released on Wednesday showed that the growth rate of service industry activity in the UK fell to a four-month low in June. The company’s optimistic view on the outlook is the lowest in the past year. Bank of England officials raising interest rates are frustrated.
Although the survey showed that the UK economy recovered some momentum in the second quarter and may record an increase of about 0.4% in the quarter, some negative signals indicate a bleak performance in the second half of 2017.
“It’s clear that the country’s economy will lose momentum in the third quarter,†said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit. “The overall situation is that corporate spending, investment and exports have not provided sufficient incentives to fully offset the impact of the slowdown in consumption.â€
After Carney’s speech last week said that the withdrawal of some monetary stimulus measures may become necessary, the Bank of England’s MPC committee arrived in Seoul last night to raise interest rates.
"Our feet have almost released the throttle," Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Michael Saunders said in an exclusive interview released by the British "Guardian" on Tuesday night. “British families should be prepared to raise interest rates at some point.â€
“I don’t think the economy needs as much stimulation (as it is now),†said Saunders, who voted for a tightening policy in June. "But if you want to raise interest rates, then you have to do it in a good economic situation, with a low unemployment rate and possibly still falling."
Although the central bank released the hawkish signal, but the economic data is weak, coupled with the dollar is expected to rebound, the pound will be under pressure in the short term. FXStreet Principal Analyst Valeria Bednarik wrote that the GBP/USD short-term technical bearish.
If GBP/USD falls below the intraday low, the next target will point to the 1.2860 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its latest gain and the June 27 high, then the 1.2810 level.
On the upside, if the exchange rate stands at 1.2920 level, it will ease the downward pressure, but only break through the 1.2960 level to turn to bullish and try to test the 1.3000 psychological barrier.
(£/$4H source: FX168 Financial Network, FXStreet)
It also pointed out in the article that the main risk event in the day will be the FOMC meeting minutes announced at 2 am on Thursday, Beijing time. It is expected that the wording will still show a hawkish tone.
The dollar may benefit in this situation, especially if the stock market and yields are holding steady. However, once the stock market and yields fall, the dollar may be under pressure.
Proofreading: JOE
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