Black early review
1, thread: the night disk is a narrow range
The threaded night plate oscillated in a narrow range. Tangshan Steel Billet reported a decline of 10 in the 3570 weekend. Shanghai thread spot report 4213 rose 60. High demand fluctuations. Although the Tangshan limit sintering was restarted, the re-production of the blast furnace continued to increase, the blast furnace started and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the supply maintained a moderate growth trend, and the margin of the factory and the social pool decreased. The social library continued to maintain a high blessing, but traders were more cautious in getting goods. The demand continued to fluctuate in the later period. The intensity of the supply-side release was highly uncertain. The differences increased, and the short-term maintenance was strong and volatile. It is not recommended to chase the high.
2, hot roll: the night plate is a narrow range
The hot-rolled night plate fluctuated in a narrow range. Shanghai hot volume mainstream offer 4160 temporarily stabilized. The release of hot coil production is still continuing, but there is a certain maintenance plan for the hot coil equipment in the middle of the year. It is expected that the increase in production will not continue and the terminal industry will not continue to grow at a high rate. The overall de-library speed is still slow, and the inventory in East China has risen and fallen. The high inventory in South China is mainly due to the low volume of goods. Therefore, the overall demand is under pressure, and the contradiction of hot coils in the later period is intensified, but it is affected by the thread. Market independence is poor. Suitable for mid-line level short configuration.
3. Iron ore: the night plate is in a narrow range
The ore night plate fluctuated in a narrow range. Qingdao Port PB reported 525 yuan (folding surface), the Platts 62 index reported 67.8 up 1.3. The transaction has picked up. The blast furnace resumption has increased the expectation of ore usage, the demand side margin has improved, and the port volume and port data have improved. As the supply is stable, the ore's rising drive is mainly from the demand side, and the current rebound is highly cautious, observing the sustainability of the replenishment.
4, coke: night turbulence is strong
Coke, 600017 Rizhao Port, attending Stocks Standard metallurgical coke 1970 yuan discount disk. 09 contract premium of 100 yuan. The operating rate of steel mills has further rebounded, and the inventory has declined slightly. Under high profits, there is demand for replenishment, but steel mills' inventory is still at a high level. Port stocks have increased further, and some traders have a tendency to ship. In the short-term, the environmental protection policy of Jiao enterprise has become stricter, the order status is good, and there is still room for improvement in demand. However, after the profit of the coke enterprise improved, the supply also rebounded and the inventory was at a high level. The price of 09 is rising, showing a turbulent pattern, focusing on the rhythm of environmental protection and production.
5, coking coal: night disk shock
Coking coal, Australia's second-line coking coal folding surface 1340. Under the improvement of the profit of Jiao enterprise, the operating rate has risen sharply, and the superimposed inventory is lower. The coke coal has a small replenishment. In terms of supply, coal mine inventories are still high, and imports of coal from Mongolia, Coal and Australia have increased. In the short term, demand for coking coal has rebounded. However, the recent restrictions on environmental protection have become stricter and supply pressure is still there. The coal price fluctuated, focusing on the rhythm of environmental protection and production.
6. Glass:
During the weekend, the overall trend of the glass spot market was general, and the production enterprises did not change much, and there was no obvious change in confidence. In terms of regional, after the South China Conference was held last week, some manufacturers' quotations rose, and some enterprises with high production capacity and high inventory were mainly wait and see. After that, the quotation also rose, but the actual implementation effect was general. The overall outflow of the Shahe area is still acceptable, and it is basically able to maintain the current production and sales balance. The price has a decline of about 20 yuan, mainly to increase the competitiveness in the surrounding markets. In the early period, manufacturers in some parts of East China planned to reduce the preferential margin or price increase, and did not implement it under the influence of the downward price of Shahe. The Qinhuangdao Yaohua 560-ton production line, which has been basically rebuilt, is initially scheduled to be ignited on May 28th. In terms of futures, the rebound of the previous glass has ended. On Friday, the glass night plate is back pumping, and the latter is near the off-season. It is recommended to hold the empty order and roll the rallies.
7. Thermal coal
Last week, the overall supply and demand situation remained relatively stable, and the market interprets this round of gains as a correction for the continuous sharp decline in the first quarter. However, the main contract of the thermal coal futures market last week showed a V-shaped reversal trend, and it hit a new high in recent months. This has led to the analysis of analytical logic through supply and demand and seasonal attributes. In the moment, the long and short factors affecting coal are complicated, and we summarize it as “policy suppression + market promotionâ€. First, the policy reiterates that coal prices will be redirected back to the “green zoneâ€; and the relevant coal enterprises will be coordinated to release production quickly and in full to secure supply. But before the actual policy was implemented, the news was quickly digested by the market. Secondly, the short-term multi-single operation obtains technical support, which triggers the fundamental and technical resonance. Although summing up last week's rally is the result of long and short game, the price rise comes from the market's optimistic judgment on the peak season of coal use this summer, that is, under the premise that hydropower substitution begins to appear, the demand for coal in the second quarter is higher than 5 years. The current status of the same period of the year has a high probability of continuing the summer coal season. As the temperature rises, industrial and residential electricity use is concentrated in the third quarter. If it is not possible to effectively increase coal production and increase supply as soon as possible, it is not easy to guide coal prices back to “green spaceâ€. It may even lead to a gradual expansion of the supply and demand gap and an unbalanced price.
It is worth noting that behind this round of upswing, short-term policy regulation, sufficient supply of long-term associations, increased railway capacity, hydropower substitution, and high-end factors such as North China and Yangtze River estuary inventory will have an inhibitory effect on coal prices. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the speed of supply release.
Operational recommendations: The main contract of futures is expected to continue to rise with the gradual increase in demand. The short-term basis is expected to continue to weaken, and industrial customers can choose to operate in reverse. The 09-01 contract spread has a high degree of fitting with 17 years. With the optimistic expectation of coal demand this summer, the spread is expected to continue to strengthen in the third quarter, and the operation is dominated by positive sets.
000061 farm, attending stocks early assessment
White sugar early review
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures were lower on Friday, as the market was on the defensive due to concerns about oversupply. Zheng sugar oscillated on Friday night and may continue to rebound in the short term. In terms of spot, Nanning brokers offer 5650 yuan / ton, warehouse price 5520-5550 yuan / ton, Nanning Group 5650 yuan / ton, factory warehouse offer 5510-5600 yuan / ton, Liuzhou middlemen offer 5620-5650 yuan / ton, warehouse The price is 5560-5600 yuan / ton, Liuzhou Group offers 5630-5650 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, Zheng sugar weekly line MACD maintains a green column, the speed line is unclear, and the 10-day moving average goes down the 120-day moving average. At the daily level, the MACD red column is expanded, the fast and slow lines are crossed, the KDJ gold fork is up, and the moving averages are kept empty. On the 30-minute line, the MACD red column is zoomed out, the fast and slow line gold fork is up, KDJ is close to the dead fork, and the 60-day moving average may go up through the 120-day moving average. Trading strategy: short and multi-day operations are appropriate.
Oil and fat oil early review
Information
1. The weekly report released by the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange stated that in the week ending May 9, Argentina's 2017/18 soybean harvest was 66.7%, up +4.9% from the previous month. The average yield was 2.30 tons / hectare, compared with 2.34 tons / hectare last week.
2. The weekly press report issued by the US Department of Agriculture shows that the US soybean crush profit growth in the past week continued to be higher than the same period last year.
3. According to EU data, from July 1, 2017 to May 7, 2017, EU soybean imports in 2017/18 were approximately 11.41 million tons, down from -4%.
4. As of May 11, the total inventory of edible palm oil in the national port was 691,000, which was -0.4% compared with yesterday, compared with -31,100 tons and -1.9% last month. The average annual inventory of 5 years is 694,800 tons.
5. As of May 10, the total commercial stock of domestic soybean oil was 1,300,800 tons, which was +13,800 tons last week, +1.07%, but -6.72 million tons, -4.88% compared with the same period of last month, +5.29 compared with the same period of last year. %, five-year average of 917,816 tons.
6, soybean meal Shandong Qingdao spot 3,000 yuan / ton, -20; Rizhao Zhongfang fourth-grade soybean oil 5660 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Zhangjiagang palm oil 24 degrees offer 5150 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Hubei Jingmen four-level vegetable oil offer 6,670 yuan / ton, -10.
CFTC Analysis: US Bean Differentiation
As of the week of May 8, CFTC non-commercial funds in the US soybean longs reduced the volume by 23,100 hands, short positions increased by 7352 hands, net more than 203,000 hands fell to 173,000 hands. Soybean meal long-term lighten up 6207 hands, short positions lighten up 452 hands, net new historical high 16.7 million hands down to 162,000 hands. Soybean oil long positions lightened 3,475 hands, short positions increased by 4,893 lots, and the clearance of 21,500 hands fell slightly to 20,100 hands. Most of the data in May's US supply and demand report basically met market expectations. Although the new year's US soybeans and global soybean ending stocks were lower than market expectations, the market is more worried about Sino-US trade negotiations, and the US soybeans fell to around 1000 on weekends. Synchronized back, while soybean oil rebounded to the 40-day line. It is expected that during the turbulence and fall of the US soybeans and soybean meal, soybean oil may usher in a short-term rebound, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Sino-US trade negotiations on the market.
operating:
The US soybean futures price fell sharply last Friday, with the July contract falling 1.71% and falling below the 60-day moving average to close at 1002 cents per bushel. It is reported that the Sino-US trade negotiation plan may be postponed, and the market's sentiment towards Sino-US trade wars is heating up again. At the same time, the weather in the US soybean planting period is normal, the market lacks further operational themes, and the fund liquidation before the weekend accelerates the disk decline process. Domestic stocks of soybean meal last week totaled 626,400 tons, an increase of 71.84% from the previous month. Soybean meal price followed the trend of US soybeans, last week continued to pull back, because the fundamentals are still weak, downstream demand has not really started, the factory soybean meal inventory declines slowly, it is expected that soybean meal prices will continue to adjust in the short term, long-term can be operated according to more than 3050. The vegetable meal also follows the trend of soybean meal. The September contract has fallen below the 60-day moving average, and the short-term focus can be on the 2500 first-line support. The trend of even the beans was weak. The increase in the planting area announced by the National Grain Center had a negative impact on the disk. The short-term market did not show signs of stabilization. It is recommended that the market be stabilized before entering the market.
Malaysian palm oil was closed for three days last week due to the holiday. Domestic palm oil rebounded after the MPOB boosted. On Friday, the 60-day line pressure was measured. It is recommended to continue to hold the 5050 line. US soybean oil out of Sanlianyang, even the soybean oil rebound momentum is weaker than the outer disk, unilateral can continue to use the 5800 integer mark for long and short water separation operation, the bean brown price difference is currently at 734, the spread back to 700~710 to consider entering the market. Rapeseed oil tangled at the 6600 integer mark on Friday. Today, we continue to pay attention to this point of long and short saws. The front stop loss can be set near the 60-day line.
Energy and Chemical Review
crude:
Yesterday Shanghai crude oil futures 1809 contract closed at 470 yuan / barrel (-0.4,0.09%). ICE announced that speculative net long position in Brent crude oil futures for the week ended May 8 decreased by 22009 to 569,448 contracts. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures for the week ending May 8 increased by 2,745 to 214,419 contracts. US oil service company Baker Hughes released data on Friday, showing that the number of oil drillings in the US on May 11 increased by 10 to 844 units, marking an increase for seven consecutive weeks. In the US, the number of natural gas drilling in the week of May 11 increased by 3 to 199. In the United States, the total number of wells in the week of May 11 increased by 13 to 1045. The entire crude oil market is calmer than before, and the market is still dominated by geopolitical issues in the Middle East, but the upward trend has not changed. It is recommended that investors should continue to operate at the same time and do risk control.
LL: L1809 fluctuated in the range on Friday, rising 0.00% throughout the day to close at 9520. On the supply side, the total apparent demand in the first quarter of 18 years was only about 400,000 tons more than the same period of last year. This increase can not fully compensate for the quarterly return gap. In the second quarter, it faces the maintenance season and the background of imported general materials is reduced. Next, the supply is more tense than the first quarter. The seasonal demand for downstream film is weakening, the demand for packaging film is stabilizing slowly, and the market faces a weak pattern of supply and demand. However, the characteristics of PE products are greater than the elasticity of demand. The market may gradually complete the destocking in the later stage. The downstream is in conflict with the high price, and the price continues to increase and the resistance increases. In operation, the market will be tuned back and forth, and the plastics index will be oscillated in the short-term range of 9400-9600, which can be rallied short and short.
PP: PP1809 fluctuated in the range on Friday, rising 0.09% throughout the day to close at 9263. The latest petrochemical stocks were 730,000 tons. As of May 9, traders' inventories increased by 10.58% from last week, and overall social inventories decreased by 4.17% from last week. Benefiting from the arrival of the upstream maintenance season, petrochemical inventories have been better decontaminated, and the inventory has been accelerated to the de-chemical period. However, in the near future, the upstream manufacturers will raise prices, and there will still be some conflicts in the downstream. In addition, the demand in the off-season will be flat, and the actual demand of the terminal will be flat. Inventories are still at a relatively high level, and the market is strong or difficult to maintain. Operationally, the market will be adjusted back and forth, and the PP index will be oscillated in the short term at 9150-9300, which can be rallied short and short.
PTA
Last week, PTA rebounded strongly. TA09 reported that it received 182 (+3.24%) for 5,800 weeks and 5 weeks, and the processing fee dropped slightly to 690 yuan/ton. The basis is slightly weaker. On Friday, mainstream suppliers are buying goods at the level of the contract with the 09 contract. The spot offer and the 09 contract are sold at 10-20 yuan/ton for flat water or discounted water. Some sources have a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the day is 5770- 5,808 yuan / ton from the lifting area. On the upstream side, the weekly PX of Asia 5 closed at $1,033/ton CFR, and the weekly increase was $43.33/ton. On the downstream side, the average weekly load of polyester remained at 89.1%, while the polyester filaments were first suppressed and then the raw material market PTA tended to rise, MEG continued to bearish, the cost was not strong in the face of market improvement, and the terminal loom operating rate declined slightly. It also makes a certain contribution to the formation of the market. On the whole, PTA spot processing is currently not high, and there is still a possibility of rising in the short term. However, if there is no military conflict between Iran and Israel in the future, Saudi Arabia and other countries will suggest an increase in production, and if the US crude oil production increases, the probability of oil price falling will fall. A substantial increase. This week, after a continuous surge, the PTA's upward momentum is expected to weaken, with a high probability of high shocks. The upper pressure sees the high point of 5880 near the year. It is recommended that the rallies be profitable and lighten, and the chase should be cautious. The market will focus on the maintenance of PTA equipment. And crude oil fluctuations.
Methanol
On the Friday night, the methanol 1809 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 2800 (+1.01%, +28). Weekly changes in spot prices, Taicang spot 3270-3280 (-50/-70), Ningbo 3380-3380 (20/10), Shandong 2820-2900 (90/0), Inner Mongolia 2500-2550 (-50/-20 ), the port market rallied last week, the price of inland areas was partially lowered, and the inland-to-port arbitrage window expanded. On the supply side, China Coal Yuanxing restarted its products, Jiangsu Hengsheng lifted its operations, Shenhua Ningmei 60, Shaanxi Coalification 60, Zhangzhou 15, Guangda 15, Hongyuan 120,000 tons, and opened 300,000 tons of equipment for parking. In terms of port inventory, the total inventory of ports in East China and South China was 425,300 tons, a decrease of 28,800 tons from the previous month. It was at a low level in the past three years, and the port inventory was tight to support the port market. As the capacity of the unit is released, there will be pressure on subsequent supplies. At present, the inter-regional arbitrage window is expanding or has certain influence. The downstream is in conflict with the high-priced supply. In addition, the olefin plant maintenance market may have a narrow decline, but the supply of methanol in the coastal areas is tight, and the short-term methanol market is still relatively strong.
Early review of non-ferrous metals
copper:
According to SMM research data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in April was 90.32%, and the operating rate continued to increase from the previous quarter, maintaining the peak season. The Shanghai copper night oscillated. The US side released a positive signal on trade negotiations, and the policy of superimposing scrap copper boosted demand for refined copper. Shanghai Copper suggested holding more than one.
aluminum:
Shanghai aluminum night oscillated. Aluminum consumption has entered the traditional peak season, and social stocks have gradually declined. Domestic bauxite is tightly superimposed on domestic alumina shortage, supporting alumina prices to rise, and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern.
Zinc:
Shanghai zinc night turbulence. The core logic of the current decline in zinc prices is still the supply recovery. ILZSG expects global zinc mine production to climb 6% this year, the highest level in at least five years. The zinc industry agreed to cut the annual zinc processing refining fee by 15% to $147/ton, reflecting the market's expectation that zinc supply will soon be greatly relaxed. Shanghai Zinc is recommended to wait and see.
nickel:
Shanghai nickel night plate rose 0.94%. In April, the natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China was 11,900 tons, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year. The cumulative output in January-April was 46,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. Inventories in the previous period were reduced by 664 tons to 30,541 tons. At present, downstream demand is steadily recovering, and spot transactions are gradually picking up. It is recommended to do more bargains below 103,000.
The above comments were provided by Yuan Ming, Bian Shuyang, Xu Yuyin, Lou Danqing, Wang Jongjian, Wang Zeyong, Yang Yaxin, Zhang Zhengze, Sheng Wenyu, He Lin, Liu Bingxin, Wang Qingqing, Yao Yixuan, Shao Lingyu, Zhang Yuantong.
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