The three major features of the cotton industry's new normal

The "new normal" gradually became a hot word. In terms of dismantling, first, "new" means different from the past; second, "normal" means relatively stable. The author thinks it, put it in the cotton industry chain, the performance of the following characteristics:

First, the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources: It is in the process of cotton resource allocation that the market has the final say.

In 2014, China’s cotton policy was adjusted and the temporary purchase and storage policy was cancelled and replaced with the target price. What results? (1) The retaliatory price of cotton has fallen sharply; (2) The cotton farmers and cotton enterprises have been devastated. This has caused some doubts about the "target price" policy. Is the target price wrong? Is it recovery or partial recovery? In fact, no need to. First of all, the policy could not be changed overnight; secondly, the cotton price has fallen sharply today and it is retaliatory. The root cause lies in the 11 million tons of national reserve cotton. If the sword of Kliss hangs overhead, even if China’s cotton production is drastically reduced in 2014, the market will not dare to. Follow up. Therefore, in 2014/15, China's cotton market is still collecting and repaying debt for three years. "Debt" is not clear, the market has no turning point; "debt" is clear, the cotton market is "shady." Therefore, policy parties must have "a large number", tolerate price increases and plunges, and tolerate temporary cotton farmers to "abandote cotton and change grain." In this way, it is believed that the cotton industry will eventually "ride the wind and waves and send sails to the Bohai Sea."

II. Scale, specialization and mechanization of cotton cotton

As we all know, China’s land is a family-owned contract responsibility system that is collectively owned. Therefore, this determines the long-term decentralized cotton cultivation and home-based characteristics. For example, most of the cotton farmers in the Yellow River Valley are cultivated in responsible fields. The number of households is 10 mu and 8 mu, and the number of farmers is 1 mu and 2 mu. In 2014, Xinjiang’s direct cotton subsidy policy was introduced, and the corresponding subsidies policies in the Mainland also provided conditions for the large-scale, specialized, and mechanized cultivation of cotton. During the New Year's Day, the author had a chat with friends in several circles. One of the major cotton growers in Zhangzhou said that basically no cotton is produced in the Mainland, and only large-scale contracting and cotton-growing can be supported by local government policies and can reduce costs. , forming a competitive advantage. In addition, the characteristics of domestic cotton, especially in the Mainland, are hand picking, and the picking time tends to last for 40-50 days, resulting in seed cotton with many impurities, more than three wires, and poor consistency. Large-scale planting and professional management provide the conditions for implementing machine-picking cotton. As of 2014, organic cotton extraction has been implemented in parts of Shandong and Hebei, and it is said that the effect is good. "The new normal of cotton must be a kind of cotton, and management changes. This is the direction, and it is also the future," said the big man in Chenzhou.

III. "De-identification" of the ginning factory

On the 5th, a 400-type ginner in Dezhou, Shandong Province, complained to the author that he said that their factory was responding to the policy call for the formal establishment of a plant in 2008 with a total investment of more than 10 million yuan. According to the prediction of the beginning of construction, 5000 tons of lint will be processed each year, with a net profit of 600-700 yuan per ton and a profit of 300-3.5 million yuan per year. In this way, you can recover your capital in 3-4 years. "It can hurt us." The boss said that since the factory was built so far, the factory has processed more than 25,000 tons of cotton in total, and most of the time it is a meager profit or a slight loss. The boss believes that the state's intention to allow the 400-type enterprises to "eat side dishes" through purchasing and storage does not bring good luck to the enterprises. Instead, they have laziness in the enterprises. Furthermore, from 2008 to 2014, under the policy of purchasing and storing, the vast majority of domestic 200-type enterprises were smashed, but some enterprises still remained “stuck but not dead”. First, it shows that the 200-type enterprise has vitality; second, the 200-type processed cotton still has a market. As a textile company owner said: I do not care whether it is 400 or 200, whether it is a large package or a small package, as long as the cotton is of good quality and quality, I will be the one who owns the cotton. The so-called "regardless of the black cats and white cats, catching rats is a good cat." Therefore, the author believes that the new normal of the cotton industry in 2015 should be the de-identification of the processing plant. Whether it is the 200 or the 400, who adapts to the market, who reduces the cost, and who guarantees the cotton, whoever Survive. Otherwise, Ebb Tide was eventually eliminated.